NFL Public Betting Guide

The NFL season is in full swing, and as each thrilling game unfolds, the excitement is growing, particularly for the countless football enthusiasts wagering millions at the best online sportsbooks every Sunday.

Whether you are only at the beginning of your NFL betting journey and want to ride the wave, or you are a seasoned NFL betting veteran ready to swim against the current, one thing is for sure: gaining a deeper understanding of the NFL public betting trends is crucial.

NFL public betting trends provide valuable insights into the collective wagering behavior of football bettors. Understanding these trends can help you make more informed decisions. So, to get you in tip-top shape for the upcoming games, we will help you learn everything you need to know about public betting and help you decide if you should let the NFL consensus affect the way you select your NFL picks.

What is Public Betting?

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Public betting, also known as betting consensus, is a measure used to demonstrate if and how the general betting public places their wagers for any given game. Sportsbooks monitor public betting trends to identify which team or outcome is receiving the majority of wagers from bettors, and they do so for sporting events from all the major leagues like the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS, and more.

Although a simple statistic for the data-trained eye, public betting can provide valuable insights and help you craft your betting strategy, as long as you avoid following it at all costs.

NFL public betting is a statistic that reveals the proportion of bets made on each side, typically focusing on the three most popular NFL betting markets: point spreads, totals, and moneyline bets.

To make things more clear, let’s take a look at a simple example.

  • In a scenario where the Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, if 75% of the wagers are placed on the Chiefs covering the spread, it’s clear that public betting trends strongly favor the Mahomes-lead Kansas. An alternative expression would be that the NFL consensus suggests the Chiefs will cover the spread against the Eagles.

Now that we know how to read NFL public betting trends through the public betting percentages, let’s take a deeper look at the NFL money percentages.

NFL Week 4 Trends

NFL Money Percentages Explained

Interpreting NFL betting trends through betting percentages, even though helpful, can sometimes present a misleading perspective. Due to that, seasoned bettors often regard NFL money percentages as the more significant method for gauging NFL betting trends.

NFL public money percentage is a metric that indicates the percentage of the total wagered amount, known as the handle, placed on a particular side of a bet. For instance, if a sportsbook records a $3 million handle for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants moneyline bet, with $2.4 million wagered on the Buccaneers, the data indicates that 80% of the public money is backing the Baker Mayfield-lead Floridians.

Unlike the NFL bet percentages that can often mislead you because most new bettors may place as little as $10 on their bet, while others might go as high as $10,000, the money percentages can paint a more intriguing picture, showing who the seasoned NFL betting veterans are siding with.

NFL Public Betting Percentages Today

Whether you aim to follow or go against the public’s betting choices, understanding public betting trends is essential for making informed sports bets. To assist you in this endeavor, we’re offering links to the top NFL betting sites where you can check the percentage of bets and percentage of money bet on every NFL game and bet type.

By heading over to the NFL consensus page on each of these betting sites, you can check the NFL consensus picks and let the betting public help you craft your NFL picks for the weekend.

NFL Public Betting Record

By utilizing the data of such NFL betting sites, you can check the record of the public’s selections for an entire NFL season. Online sports betting platforms excel at record-keeping, meticulously storing each single bet placed within their system, allowing you to see how the public performed against the spread in previous years.

How to Spot NFL Betting Trends

There are plenty of trends, and although some may be intriguing, they might not contribute to successful NFL betting. However, there are specific methods that can help you identify betting trends that are actually worth taking into consideration. Let’s take a look at the most important ones.

Analyze Historical Data

Examine previous game results, team performances, and player stats. Search for recurring patterns, like teams consistently performing well against the spread at home or in particular weather conditions.

Use Betting Databases and Consider Public Betting Percentages

Utilize online sports betting databases and websites that provide historical betting data, line movements, and results, including public betting percentages. Make sure to closely monitor public betting percentages to gauge who the NFL betting public is betting on.

Pay Attention to Head-to-Head Matchups

Analyze the historical records of head-to-head encounters between the teams in question. NFL is a football league where particular franchises might maintain a persistent edge over others, resulting in foreseeable trends.

Combine Data with Team and Player Analysis

Dive deep into team and player statistics, including offensive and defensive performance, turnover ratios, and scoring trends. Identify strengths and vulnerabilities that could influence betting results. Proceed by combining your NFL knowledge with the historical data and the data from the betting databases.

NFL Public Betting Predictions

The bet and money percentages for each NFL game serve as a valuable tool to assist you in determining which NFL team to consider for your bet. By examining the sports betting data from the public, you can discern which NFL teams are receiving substantial bets and whether individuals are leaning toward the underdog or the favorite.

The NFL consensus picks represent the prevailing sentiment or opinion of the general betting public regarding the outcome of each NFL game. However, it’s essential to remember that the consensus is just one factor to consider in making informed betting decisions.

Falcons vs Lions

Let’s say there is a game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Atlanta Falcons, and the NFL consensus indicates that the NFL betting public is leaning toward the Vikings to cover the spread. If your in-depth analysis, understanding of the game, and latest news suggest that the Falcons have a chance of an upset, it would be wise to stick to your decision and fade the public.

Identifying what the Sharps are Betting in NFL

As mentioned, the NFL public bet percentage only shows the number of NFL wagers made without considering the amount of money wagered on each ticket. When we compare the bet percentage and money percentage for the same team and bet type, the contrast can reveal intriguing insights.

Let’s make things clear with a simple example. In a game where the Baltimore Ravens are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, if the Ravens have 82% of the betting tickets for a spread bet but only 45% of the total money bet, it suggests that the wagers placed on the Ravens are small.

On the other hand, this same data indicates that the bets placed on the Jaguars are significantly larger. As a matter of fact, they are probably massive because there is a large difference between the percentage of bets and the percentage of money bet.

Noticing such a significant gap between the bet and money percentage is the go-to method for identifying sharp money action and identifying what the sharps are betting on.

How to Bet Against the Public in the NFL?

Some NFL bettors strongly prefer to bet in line with the public sentiment, regardless of the teams involved. However, if you are more in line with the other group of bettors who firmly believe that the public is consistently mistaken, you should consider betting against the public.

When it comes to betting against the public in the NFL, or contrarian betting as many refer to, the primary principle is to wager against the popular opinion of the public bettors. Search for exciting matchups where a significant percentage of the public bets are on one team and bet against it.

Although simple, let’s break this strategy down with an example.

  • Let’s say the Las Vegas Raiders are playing against the Chicago Bears, the line for the Over/Under is 32, and 68% of the bets are on the Under. Placing a bet on the Over would be betting against the NFL consensus.

It is crucial to understand that while betting against the public can offer value in specific situations, it’s not, by any means, a guaranteed strategy. However, combining contrarian betting with detailed analysis and good bankroll management would be a great approach to creating a decent strategy for betting on NFL games.

Is Betting Against or With the Public a Better NFL Strategy?

Each bettor must understand that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to NFL betting. Both betting against or with the public are NFL betting strategies that have pros and cons and depend on specific circumstances. That’s why thriving bettors often use a combination of different betting strategies that adapt to various scenarios and conditions.

Now, let’s explore the typical advantages and disadvantages of both betting with and against the NFL betting public to gain a more distinct understanding of each strategy.

Advantages of betting with the public:

  • It may lead to more frequent wins since the public usually sides with the favorites.
  • Low risk, as long as the top teams perform as expected.

Disadvantages of betting with the public:

  • It may lead to lower odds and low-value bets.
  • It may lead to tough losses when the popular teams underperform.
  • There is a possibility of decreased profit due to higher consensus-driven NFL lines.

Advantages of betting against the public:

  • It can lead to higher odds and high-value bets.
  • It can offer an opportunity for a substantial payout when the underdogs perform.

Disadvantages of betting with the public:

  • Higher level of risk and lower chances of winning.
  • There is a chance of experiencing an extended period of consecutive losses.
  • It can be time-consuming since it requires in-depth analysis and highly detailed research.