Canelo vs Charlo Odds & Prediction
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Canelo vs Charlo Odds & Prediction

Quick Facts

  • Canelo enters as favrorite, wager on him to win by knockout at +750
  • Charlo comes in as the underdog, you can get odds on him to win by knockout at +2900
  • You can bet on the draw at +1600

This coming Saturday at 9 p.m. ET, boxing superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (59-2-2, 39 KOs), will put his undisputed super middleweight championship belt on the line against Jermell Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs).

This has all the hallmarks of an exciting, intense fight. Charlo, the current undisputed super welterweight champion, has moved up from 154 to 168 pounds to take on who many consider the ultimate test at middleweight. Jermell is part of a talented family. His brother, Jermall Charlo, is currently the WBC middleweight champion and many pundits expected him to take on Canelo as he is closer in weight, but it wasn’t to be.

You can debate of Alvarez is currently the best pound for pound fighter in the world, but what is not up for debate is his popularity. Although this time he isn’t fighting on Mexican Independence Day weekend, as is usually the case, this PPV event will likely be one of the most popular bouts of the year.

Canelo vs Charlo Odds & Analysis

FighterOdds (To Win, Moneyline)
Canelo Alvarez-430
Jermell Charlo+300

Canelo enters this bout off the back of a points win over Britain’s John Ryder in May in Mexico. Although it was no surprise to see Canelo’s arm lifted in victory, it was surprising to many that it took the full 12 rounds. Canelo looked as vicious as ever, but he couldn’t find the shot to stop Ryder, even when the two traded punches multiple times throughout the fight.

Ryder was still able to land hurtful shots on the Mexican in the last few rounds, perhaps showing that the Mexican is slowing down. Alvarez did send Ryder to the canvas in the fifth round, but was unable to finish him off.

The biggest question mark for Charlo coming into this is inactivity. He hasn’t fought since May 2022 when he stopped Brian Castano in Round 10. The American has been far less active than Canelo, which could be a big factor. Alvarez has had two fights since Charlo last entered the ring, and lots of people are wondering if that lack of activity will see Charlo looking rusty against such a formidable opponent.

If you feel the lack of action will see Charlo get stopped early, you can get odds on FanDuel of +9500 to win in round 1. For those looking for a big payout and fancy the upset, you can bet on Charlo to do something no one has done before, and knock Canelo out (+950).

Prediction for Canelo vs Charlo

It is hard to look past Canelo for this fight. Charlo is a talented fighter but the lack of activity and the fact he is having to move up in weight leads me to think Canelo by unanimous decision at -120 is the best bet for this one.

It wouldn’t be a shock to see a knockdown, but I think it will go to the cards lack Canelo’s last fight. There is no doubt Charlo carries power, in fact all six of his finishes in his previous world title bouts have come via knockout. However, those contests were at 154 pounds, and Canelo is renowned for his extremely strong chin, absorbing punches from power punchers such as GGG in the past.

On the face of it, Canelo seemingly has far more advantages in this one. Although Charlo is a world class operator at 154 pounds, Canelo is a better counterpuncher, defender and as we mentioned above, has a granite chin.

Many people think Canelo is showing signs of wear and tear, with his defeat to Dimitry Bivol enhancing the thought that the end is near for the legendary Mexican. But there is still enough left in the tank for him to see off an opponent moving up two weights and coming off a 16 month layoff.

I think Canelo wins a unanimous decision to retain is undisputed super middleweight crown.

Best Sportsbooks for Canelo vs. Charlo

If you are looking for the best boxing betting sites you can find out more information in our detailed guide or simply select from our very best picks below.

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