Pavlovich vs Aspinall Odds, Preview, Picks & Prediction | UFC 295

Author:

Paul R

Updated:

Nov 8, 2023

Big sports enthusiast, long-time Seahawks fan who loves betting on major pro and college sports.

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Quick Facts

Tom Aspinall is a slight favorite at odds of -118
In what many predict to be a close fight, Sergei Pavlovich enters as the underdog at -104
Fight is for interim title after Jon Jones pulled out of the event

Pavlovich vs Aspinall Odds

Fighter	Odds (To Win)
Sergei Pavlovich	-104
Tom Aspinall	-118

In the co-main event at UFC 295 this coming weekend, heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall will collide for the interim title after champion Jon Jones withdrew from the card. With all of the attention seemingly being placed on the Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira fight, this contest has also got the juices flowing and should be just as explosive.

According to the latest odds, this is certainly a true 50/50 fight with bookmakers believing there is very little to separate the two. Aspinall is a very narrow moneyline favotite with odds of -118. The odds reflect the fact that both of these fighters carry similar attributes which is why it is difficult to be confident in selecting a winner.

Pavlovic will step into the octagon this weekend as the number two heavyweight in the world. He is the slight underdog with odds of -104 to overcome the number four ranked fighter, Tom Aspinall.

Being heavyweights, naturally both come reputations of being knockout artists. Indeed, Pavlovich has won all his UFC fights in the first round, while any contest involving Aspinall does not exactly last much longer, with the Englishman only reaching the second round in one of his UFC fights so far. For those reasons, betting on either to win by TKO could be tempting. You can wager on Pavlovich to get the knockout at +125 while if you think Aspinall can stop his opponent you can find odds of +220.

Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction

When you look closely at the physical attributes of both fighters, Aspinall stands at 6’5” with a 78” punching reach, and a 44” leg reach. Pavlovich is the slightly smaller man at 6’3” with a 84” punching reach, and a 45” leg reach. There isn’t a clear difference or advantage for either when looking at those numbers, again indicating why many feel it is a tough one to call.

When dig down into the numbers, Aspinall lands 7.6 significant strikes per minute at 67% while Pavlovich lands an extremely impressive .7 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy.

The one factor that has swayed my decision is the takedown numbers. Pavlovich struggles in this department, not recording any takedowns while Aspinall gets over 3.7 takedowns at 100% accuracy. When you consider the similar stats across most other metrics, grappling could be the key to winning this fight for Aspinall.

With that said, I am going for Aspinall to win by submission (+380).

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