Super Bowl LVIII Odds, Best Bets & Predictions

Author:

Paul Ricci

Updated:

Feb 5, 2024

Big sports enthusiast, long-time Seahawks fan who loves betting on major pro and college sports.

Super Bowl LVIII

Kansas City ChiefsKansas City Chiefs ๐Ÿ†š San Francisco 49ersSan Francisco 49ers

Well, it is officially Super Bowl week. After all of the talk, debates, fallout and Taylor Swift memes, we have reached the big game following an exciting season that has had a bit of everything. After 32 teams set out way back in the Summer with aims of reaching Las Vegas, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will take to the field with the aims of adding a ring and etching their names in history.

The Chiefs have pretty much owned the AFC in the 2020s while the 49ers have been the most dominant team in the NFC this decade, so it seems pretty fitting that both should meet in the big one.

To reach this stage, the Chiefs went into Baltimore as the underdogs but completely shut Lamar Jackson and the Ravens down, winning 17-10. The 49ers, however, very much did it the hard way, overcoming a 17 point deficit at the half to beat the Detroit Lions 34-31 to clinch the NFC Championship.

We should also probably mention that this is, of course, a rematch of the one played four years ago. In Super Bowl LIV in Miami, the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 31-20 to give Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid their first Super Bowl triumph. Will it be repeat or revenge this Sunday? Let’s take a look at some factors and background which could define this game.

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Recent History

This is almost becoming an annual pilgrimage for Chiefs Kingdom. Kansas City will be appearing in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, strengthening claims that this is now a fully-fledged dynasty. As I have mentioned several times during the previews here throughout the season, their offense has been average and very inconsistent, lacking the explosiveness and uniqueness we’ve all become accustomed to over the last few years. However, since the playoffs began they have been locked in and the offense has started to roll. Before this year, the Chiefs had never played in a true road playoff game since Patrick Mahomes has been the QB. They have now won back-to-back games on the road so silence any doubters and reach Super Bowl 58.

The Chiefs are hoping to become the first franchise in 19 years to win 2 straight Super Bowls. It is becoming increasingly rarer for teams to defend their title, with only 8 doing so in the entire history of the NFL. Since Mahomes was drafted in 2018, the Chiefs have claimed two Lombardi Trophies.

The 49ers haven’t enjoyed as much success as that recently, their last Super Bowl win was 29 years ago, but they have come close in recent years. They fell at the NFC title game in each of the past two seasons, and this is their second trip to the big game in the last 5 years. Their head coach, Kyle Shanahan, is one of the best offensive minds in the league and has built the league’s No. 2-ranked offense around QB Brock Purdy, who was ‘Mr Irrelevant’ in the 2022 draft.

In terms of total Super Bowl wins, the 49ers rank second with five (in seven trips), but their best years came a long time ago. Four of their five Super Bowls were in the 1980s and the last one was 1994. But they have been knocking on the door in recent times, can they knock it down this weekend?


Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs:ย Anybody who isn’t an NFL fan has still likely heard of Patrick Mahomes. Most people who watch the game, from pundits to fans to coaches and even players will acknowledge he is the best quarterback in the NFL and probably will be a ย firstballot Hall of Famer. However, he didn’t post stellar numbers in 2023 and in fact he’s coming off the back of one of his worst statistical seasons in his pro career.

Mahomes’ 2023 saw him post career lows in passer rating (92.6), interceptions (14), touchdown rate (4.5 percent) and yards per attempt (7.0). Many claim his lack of weapons has been the main cause of those numbers, but by his own lofty standards they are poor. But, the fact remains when he is on the field the Chiefs have a chance and he has turned the dial up in this postseason run, completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 718 yards with 4 TDs and no interceptions.

Brock Purdy, 49ers:ย As we mentioned, Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft. But since he has taken his first snap under center, he has made that draft position look silly. He was a legit MVP candidate for this year as he expertly marshals a 49ers offense that has weapons everywhere. The critics suggest Purdy is merely a ‘game manager’ but his numbers suggest he is far more than that. Purdy completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions during the year.

There is no doubt he gets a lot of help from the talent around him, but there is also no doubt that he is a very talented QB capable of carrying his team to victory.

Kansas City Chiefs ๐Ÿ†š San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LVIII
Quarterback Passing Yards
Kansas City Chiefs Patrick MahomesOver 262.5 Yards
-110
Under 262.5 Yards
-110
San Francisco 49ers Brock PurdyOver 245.5 Yards
-110
Under 245.5 Yards
-110

Key Players

Chiefs

TE Travis Kelce:ย We have to start with Mr Kelce, who will go down as one of the best tight end’s ever when he calls it a day. Like Mahomes, he didn’t have his best regular season, finishing below 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015. But also like Mahomes, he has come alive in the postseason, with 23 receptions for 262 yards and three touchdowns in his last 3 playoff games.

RB Isiah Pacheco:ย Since he was given the nod as the Chiefs RB1 halfway through his rookie year last year, Pacheco has been crucial for this Chiefs offense. He is known around the league for his angry running style, constantly churning out yards when it doesn’t look possible. With Mahomes not being totally comfortable with his receivers, having a reliable ground game has been a vital.

Whole Defense:ย I had to just say whole defense here, as I think it would be unfair to pick just one player. It is undoubtedly the best defense of the Mahomes era, with defensive tackle Chris Jones, slot cornerback Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed some of the most talented players on that side of the ball in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl LVIII
Kansas City Chiefs TD Scorers
Kansas City Chiefs Travis KelceAnytime TD Scorer
+100
First TD Scorer
+800
Last TD Scorer
+650
Kansas City Chiefs Isiah PachecoAnytime TD Scorer
-130
First TD Scorer
+550
Last TD Scorer
+600

49ers

RB Christian McCaffrey:ย A lot of commentators feel the running back position is losing value these days, try telling that to CMC and the 49ers. McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards with 1,459 and added 14 touchdowns, second among running backs. He is an absolute battering ram and has been top class since the 49ers traded for him. He should definitely be in the MVP conversation for this NFL year.

WR Deebo Samuel:ย The stats say the 49ers are much more likely to win when Deebo is on the field, and you can see why. He is used as a Swiss Army knife in the 49ers offense, equally adept at catching the football and also running all over teams. The Chiefs defense will need eyes on him at all times.

DT Nick Bosa:ย The reigning defensive player of the year currently leads the team with 10.5 sacks. Although that is down on his record of 18.5 sacks last year, he is still a menace off the edge. If the 49ers are to have any success this weekend, they will need Bosa to disrupt Mahomes as much as possible.

San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers TD Scorers
San Francisco 49ers Christian McCaffreyAnytime TD Scorer
-220
First TD Scorer
+350
Last TD Scorer
+450
San Francisco 49ers Deebo SamuelAnytime TD Scorer
+145
First TD Scorer
+950
Last TD Scorer
+850

Verdict

Before the season started, I tipped the 49ers to win the Super Bowl and I am not going to change now. Although the Chiefs defense is elite, you can run on them. So San Francisco needs to play to its strengths and give the ball to CMC as much as possible while adding in some creative sweeps with Samuel. Kyle Shanahan loves to have a run first offense and that will be the key on Sunday. The talent they have on defense is also more than capable of stopping Mahomes and the Chiefs, but it is even better if you keep him off the field by running the ball.

Of course, you can never rule out Kansas City, they know how to win. But I will go with the 49ers to edge the game and gain revenge for four years ago.

Kansas City Chiefs ๐Ÿ†š San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LVIII
Game Lines
Betting Markets:MoneylinesPoint SpreadsTotal Points
Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City ChiefsChiefs Win
+110
Chiefs +2.5 Spread
-110
Chiefs Score Over 23.5
-108
Chiefs Score Under 23.5
-112
San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers49ers Win
-130
49ers -2.5 Spread
-110
49ers Score Over 24.5
-102
49ers Score Under 24.5
-120

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