Underdog Betting Guide

What Is Underdog Sports Betting?

An underdog is a team or player that the sportsbook expects to lose. In contrast, the favorite is the team or player that is expected to win.

Underdog in sports betting is when you defy the sportsbook and bet on the underdog team or player to cause an upset. For example, you bet on the Detroit Pistons, who were the worst team in the NBA Eastern Conference, to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, who had the best regular season record.

Underdog sports betting is all about being a contrarian. The general public and the sportsbook is predicting Team A to win, but you are saying everyone is wrong and gambling on Team B. It takes courage to go against the grain, and it is definitely risky, but you get rewarded with bigger payouts.

How to Spot the Underdog?

The easiest way to spot the underdog is to just look at the betting odds. The team or player with the + odds is the underdog. The higher the odds, the bigger the underdog.

For example, if the Detroit Lions are +235 to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, that means the sportsbook is predicting they have a 29.85% chance of winning. However, if they were a +400 underdog, their implied probability would only be 20%.

The team with the negative odds is considered the favorite, and the sportsbook is predicting them to win the majority of the time. The lower the favorite’s odds, the more likely they are to win. For example, a -300 favorite is expected to win 75% of the time, while a -500 favorite is expected to win 83.33% of the time.

Favorites vs. Underdog Betting

Betting on favorites and underdogs can both be viable sports betting strategies, but they require different approaches. When you are betting on underdogs, you need to reduce your average bet size because the chance of losing individual bets is high. If you risk too much of your cash on underdogs, you can easily lose a number of wagers in a row and put a serious dent in your bankroll. When betting on favorites, you can afford to increase your stake size and take more risks because the chance of the player or team winning is much greater.

You can use the Kelly Criterion to calculate your ideal bet size when betting on favorites and underdogs. The formula is (your calculated implied probability of winning % x the decimal odds from the sportsbook – your calculated implied probability of not winning %) / decimal odds from the sportsbook = percentage of your bankroll you should wager.

For example, if you think the Detroit Lions actually have a 35% chance of beating the Kansas City Chiefs, you would bet 15.6% of your bankroll (0.35 x 3.35 – 0.65)/3.35). If you think the Kansas City Chiefs actually have an 80% chance of beating the Detroit Lions, you would bet 65.26% of your bankroll (0.80 x 1.357 – 0.20)/1.357).

As a reward for taking on greater risk, you receive bigger payouts when betting on underdogs. For example, if you bet $100 on the Detroit Pistons at +235, you will receive $335 in total and $235 in profit. However, if you bet $100 on the Kansas City Chiefs at -280, you will only get $135.71 and $35.71 in profit.

Best Betting Markets for Underdog Picks

You can find great underdog picks in virtually all betting markets, including money line, spread, totals, futures, over/under, and props. Typically the best markets are match result based where there are two outcomes.

Moneyline

Moneyline bet is where you bet on Team A or Team B to win. In the money line markets, there is typically a clear underdog, and you can get big payouts if you bet on them to cause the upset.

Spread

Spread bets are similar to moneyline bets, where you need to predict Team A or Team B to win; however, you need to factor in the + points handicap that the sportsbook applies to the underdog. There are usually only small underdogs in the spread markets, which increases your chances of winning.

Totals

With a totals bet, you need to predict how many points or goals will be scored in a particular game. Totals are presented as an over/under style wager where you need to guess whether the total points scored will be over or under the line set by the sportsbook. Like spread betting, the underdogs are small in this market.

Popular Sports for Betting on Underdogs

Underdog betting strategy in major sports like football and basketball is tricky because the sportsbooks have pretty accurate pricing models, and the general public is a lot more knowledgeable. This why we recommend hunting for underdogs in niche sports like:

Table Tennis

Most people don’t even know that there is professional table tennis and that you can bet on it. Most of the action goes down in Europe, and the top leagues are the Czech Republic TT Star Series, Setka Cup, and TT Cup.

A great strategy is to bet on the pre-match underdog to win the first set. There seems to be a common trend where the underdog will win the first set but then go on to lose the match. You can even head to the live gambling markets and then bet on the pre-match favorite, who is now likely the underdog after losing the first set, and then bet on them to mount a comeback and win the match.

Esports

Esports betting markets have only been around for a few years, and with so many different disciplines, sportsbooks often have difficulty accurately pricing underdogs. We recommend betting on small regional tournaments for esports like Dota 2 and League of Legends with lots of unknown teams and then doing a deep dive research until you find a team that has a great shot at winning.

Handball

Handball is another niche sport that not many Americans have heard of but can be potentially profitable to bet on. The sport is like indoor soccer, but instead of kicking the ball into the goal, the players throw it.

The sport is popular in Europe, and the top leagues are Men’s Bundesliga, French Men Division 1, and Liga Asobal. You can get some amazing high odds on handball underdogs in the moneyline markets.

Should You Bet on the Underdog?

Sometimes betting on the underdog makes sense, and sometimes it doesn’t. It is a case-by-case situation that should be based on your research and odds pricing model. For example, let’s say the Los Angeles Rams are a +200 underdog to beat the Seattle Seahawks. If you start crunching the numbers and come to the conclusion that the sportsbook has accurately priced this betting market, then you shouldn’t take the bet.

However, if you conclude that the sportsbook is not correctly pricing an injury to a key Seattle Seahawk linebacker and have failed to price in the Rams improved running game, then your model might reveal that the Rams are actually only a +170 underdog and are worth betting on.

As a general rule of thumb, betting on underdogs is riskier than betting on favorites, as you are more likely to lose. However, you do get to enjoy higher odds and bigger payouts. You need to find the balance between an underdog with nice odds but, at the same time, have a legitimate chance of winning!

What Are the Chances of Winning My Underdog Bet?

The chances of you winning your underdog bet depend on your own research and handicapping. However, you can calculate what percentage the sportsbook gives you of winning your underdog bet by following these steps:

1. Select an underdog bet – Let’s say you bet on the Houston Texans at +340 to beat the Baltimore Ravens
2. Convert the American odds to decimal odds – 1 + (340/100) = 4.4
3. Divide 1 by decimal odds – 1 /4.4 = 0.2273
4. Multiply answer by 100 – 0.2273 x 100 = 22.73%

So as you can see, the chances the sportsbook gives you of winning an underdog bet depends on the odds they provide for a sporting event. The higher the odds, the less chance they give you of winning and vice versa.

Underdog Betting Strategy

Don’t just bet on any underdog you come across. Instead, use these tips to find underdogs that have a legit shot at winning:

Bet On Home Underdogs

A home underdog is a team that has home-field advantage but is expected to lose. Sportsbooks often underestimate the home-field advantage in certain markets. We recommend betting on home underdog college basketball and football teams as the local student fans can create extremely hostile environments for the away team.

Bet On Underdogs Who Are In Poor Form

After a team loses a few games in a row, the whole world is ready to write them off as losers. However, the opposite often happens, and the team’s bad luck ends, and they experience a mean reversion effect and start playing like their previous selves.

Avoid Underdogs With Greater Odds Than +500

The higher the underdog odds, the bigger your payout will be, but unfortunately, your chance of winning radically decreases. We recommend finding underdogs in the +200 to +400 range, which gives you a 33.33% to 20% chance of winning.

Practice Strict Bankroll Management

When betting on underdogs, you need to reduce your normal bet size. If you try to use the same stake size that you use for favorites, it won’t be long before you lose 5 or more bets in a row and blow your bankroll!

Pros & Cons of Underdog Betting

Underdog betting has a lot of perks, but there are also key downsides that you need to consider before you start throwing cash on teams no one thinks are going to win!